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Wallowa Lake, Oregon, Spring 2009
©EOP
I am going to be out of the country until mid September, so this may be the last posting for awhile—do not know how much time to write or what kind of internet connexion I may have.
A correction of an error: several postings back I talked of el Niño conditions leading to more rain in the southwestern United States, a correct statement, but I also commented that there would be some refilling of Lake Mead and the other reservoirs on the Colorado. In fact, despite the rains, the drought has not broken, and Lake Mead has continued to loose water. Now the post el Niño condition called la Niña (a heresy for anyone who believes in Christian mythology, for el Niño means the Christ child and la Niña would mean the female equivalent!) promises yet more dry weather. Only slightly broken by the winter of 2010, the drought is the longest recorded for the southwest.
The post el Niño conditions projected for California and the southwest are dire, especially as there is evidence the period may also be warmer than normal. Higher rates of evapo-transpiration with warmer air temperatures increase the severity of the already serious drought. If it should continue several more years, there could be a real water supply crisis in the region including water for Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
Flood conditions in Pakistan are far worse than first described. The official death toll remains suspiciously low, but it has been estimated that 20 million have lost their homes and as much as a fifth of the country's land has suffered severe damage from the flood waters. The rains have not yet stopped, and thus the flooding could continue for some time. The displaced population is about the same as the total population of New York State, and the land area estimated to have suffered damage is greater than the land area of the Empire State! The area still covered by flood water and that damaged by high water includes some of the most productive farm land in Pakistan. Food production and the production of cotton and other crops are devastated for this growing season. Water borne disease has already been recorded, and it is not far fetched to worry about epidemic cholera, typhus, typhoid and possible malaria along with a variety of other gastro-intestinal problems. Large sums of money and other types of aid have been promised by various countries and international organisations, but much of that aid is likely to arrive too late to prevent one of the greater humanitarian catastrophes of recent years. The political dimensions can at present only be estimated, but it is hard to see how Pakistan's feeble civilian government will be able to cope.
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