05 October 2010

Mercatus and African Development


This morning I had the unsettling experience of listening to a lecturer from the Mercatus Center of George Mason University (of which more below) preach to an OLLI audience why she thinks Africa has a bright future. The underlying gospel message was "if only unfettered 'free market capitalism' is allowed, all will be well." For the sake of the people of Sub-Saharan Africa, one must hope that the conclusions drawn from the shockingly incomplete and biased sermon are correct, but Ms Boudreaux's explanation of why the situation is improving is so far removed from any reasonable enumeration and analysis of facts on the ground as to beggar a point by point refutation. Indeed, one wonders what sources she may have used to reach her fanciful conclusions - the only sources she cited were a few commercial web sites, including one about public toilets in Kenya, and her personal experiences. Those of us who are concerned outside observers making a serious effort to keep ideology and personal bias out of our conclusions find it very hard to share even a smidgen of her optimism, for most of the published evidence suggests that in the most optimistic overview conditions are not getting any worse. Of course Sub-Saharan Africa is a very large area with many countries, and not all of them face an equally grim future, especially if Chinese mining companies expand at the rate currently projected.

It is worth briefly noting several statements and omissions in Ms. Boudreaux's sermon. A statement that Africa is somehow less prone to conflict than in the past can only come from a Panglossian ignorance of the contents of serious news sources which suggest that nasty conflict has died down only slightly and  for the moment, probably due in some measure to sheer exhaustion of the combatants in several countries. Some of the largest, and until recently more pacific and successful, states, notably Kenya and Nigeria, are threatened by the kind of conflicts which in the recent past resulted in perhaps as many as 5 million deaths in Congo, hideous civil warfare in various West African countries, the deadly chaos in parts of Sudan and Somalia, and the genocide in Rwanda. The statistics of a year or two simply do not trump trends shown by the events of decades. Economic growth rates of 5 per cent were claimed, perhaps correctly though the source of the information was not stated, but when the labor force is growing at that rate or more, it merely means running fast to stay in place. Trying to make the sermon gender friendly, Ms. Boudreaux talked about female empowerment. Never mind that some parts of Africa have a longer tradition of active female participation in the economy, as entrepreneurs and decision makers and not just as labor, than many northern countries including the US.  

Meanwhile the sermon completely omitted mention of  most aspects of the severe environmental problems blighting Africa's future, not least those arising from climate change. Water is now a critically scarce resource in some areas and will become scarce in more regions should climate change be at levels currently projected. Africa may have a great deal of unused farm land, but that is a debatable point if one values wildlife, ecological balance, and the rights of indigenous people (to her credit Ms Boudreaux did mention that last concern). Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from rates of debilitating and fatal diseases, especially AIDS, far in excess of those recorded elsewhere, those diseases ravaging a population with some of the highest birth and death rates presently being recorded. Data on population size and growth, life expectancy, the sex-ratio and the dependency ratio  should be startling to anyone with the background of even a single undergraduate demography course. No valid evaluation of Africa's future prospects can fail to include environmental and demographic variables.

I am not an African specialist and would not presume to offer a lecture on the subject without heavy dependence on and citation of sources. That said, I could with little additional research give a better balanced and more insightful lecture on the topic than the one I heard this morning! That is not a claim of virtue on my part but rather a severe indictment of the quality of the sermon I heard.

The message that human progress requires unfettered "free market capitalism" (some leftist critics call that same phenomenon "late-stage monopoly-capitalism") is the basis of the economic theology promoted by Mercatus affiliated "scholars." In fact, Mercatus is a propaganda mill (aka "think tank") serving some immensely wealthy capitalists who wish to negate all taxation and economic regulation and the radical right-wing in American politics who represent those interests in Congress and other legislative bodies. It provides messages of comfort to the comfortable while enjoying the status of a research center at a state-funded  (second-tier) university, one with a fortunate location in the richest county of the United States. Of course, Fairfax is rich because it is home of thousands of highly paid government employees and various "beltway bandits," companies extracting rents from the federal government. While richer and more sophisticated than most of the state, Fairfax is a part of Virginia, itself a welfare state with an economy outside the Washington area heavily dependent on federal spending for the military and crop supports in agriculture, especially tobacco . The dependence on government expenditures for economic success makes  the presence of Mercatus with its central creed of  free market fundamentalism truly ironic! 

In an article in the 30 August 2010 issue of the New Yorker, Jane Mayer "Covert Operations: The billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama" discusses the Koch brothers of Kansas, part of the big money interests behind the supposedly grass-roots "tea party movement." Wishing to halt taxation of their immense wealth and government regulation of various mining and industrial activities they control, the brothers have been active in funding right-wing politicians and causes. The Mercatus Center is important among recipients of Koch brothers funds. Mayer's article raises important questions about the propriety of a state university housing a partisan propaganda mill, especially one funded by private interests with a very specific agenda.


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01 October 2010

"Liquid Assets," CNBC Programme

Last evening CNBC broadcast "Liquid Assets - The Big Business of Water - 'The host explores the coming water crisis as fresh water becomes harder to find.'" As is often the case with television specials, it tried to cover too much territory in just an hour, but most of its contents were reasonably presented. It could have been edited to omit the the section on bottled water and the repellant comic Black whose obnoxious presence merely ate up time that could have been better devoted to other issues. Bottled water is significant as a matter for concern, but it really deserves a separate discussion, for it is not directly related to most of the other issues the programme raised when less than an hour is available.

That said, the documentary pointed to some of the key issues in the current water situation, including population growth, improvement in living standards and climate change leading to a growing demand for water, competing demands for scarce supplies in arid areas, and questions about how the distribution of increasingly scarce water supplies should be decided. In the coming weeks we shall look at most of those issues and in rather greater detail than a one hour television show (actually only about 45 minutes when advertising is removed) can offer. If you missed "Liquid Assets" and CNBC or some related television channel broadcasts it again, I strongly recommend devoting an hour to viewing it.

29 September 2010

Second Class Session 29 September 2010

World Water Supplies: The Coming Crisis
Mendoza, Argentina ©eop

Session II: The Physical Geography of Water Supplies: Some Illustrative Materials


Thanks to a computer glitch, three videos I had wanted to use with the session were unavailable.  Below are those videos and a couple of notices. I shall post the outline of the session in a day or two.



I. World rainfall by Month, 1998-2009
Source: NASA Earth Observatory

II. World Snow Cover

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

3. Great Artesian Basin of Australia


Source: Government of Australia

The following information is thanks to one of our class members:
"Liquid Assets - The Big Business of Water   'The host explores the coing water crisis as fresh water becomes harder to find"  CNBC Thursday 30 October 9-10 pm
According to other class embers CNBC is available at Channel 68 on Cox cable and 102 on Verizon. The CNBC website does not give much additional information, but it sounds as if the broadcast will be worth watching.



Once again, by next session 6 October, please work out your water footprint. Go to the website at http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=cal/WaterFootprintCalculator

28 September 2010

NotesVII

Bar, Soho, London 2010 ©eop

By world standards, the New York Times (NYT) is a rather timid paper, but it is the best daily printed source in the US for stories on major topics, ones that would be front page headlines and multi-column stories in good papers abroad. A couple of days ago the NYT had a very good article on water in Egypt, and today (Tuesday, 28 September 2010) it has a good article on water issues in the Southwestern US. "Water Use in Southwest Heads for a Day of Reckoning" by Felicity Baringer examines the problems of water supply in a region that had grown rapidly during a period of drought. The article makes clear an issue that has been widely discussed elsewhere, the likelihood of conflict over the waters of the Colorado River in the near future unless the drought of the past decade ends soon.

26 September 2010

The Nile's Waters: Conflict Between Egypt and Upstream Countries

Nile Valley

The Nile is the classic example of an exotic river, rising in the highlands of Ethiopia and Central Africa then flowing through the deserts of Sudan and Egypt toward the Mediterranean.  In all of the countries through which the river and its tributaries flow there is a demand for water in excess of easily obtainable supplies from sources other than the river. Egypt, with a population rapidly approaching 80 million, is almost totally dependent on the Nile for water. Agriculture, industry, and domestic users draw water from the river, while the Aswan Dam uses the flow of the river to produce a large fraction of the country's electric energy. With growing populations, demand for higher standards of living, and climate change, demand for the Nile's water is all but certain to generate conflict in the not too distant future.

There is an excellent article on the conflict in today's (Sunday 26 November 2010) New York Times by Thanassis Cambanis, "Egypt and Thirsty Neighbors Are at Odds Over Nile." As I had not planned to discuss in detail the Nile, or much of any other water conflict in Africa, the article is particularly interesting as a supplement to the course, and I strongly recommend reading it.

23 September 2010

First Class Session 22 September 2010

Mendoza Argentina ©eop

I am using some copyrighted items in the power pointe presentations, and I cannot legally post them without permissions (the fair use doctrine allows their use in class sessions), so instead I shall post outlines of the sessions along with notes where appropriate.

World Water Supplies: The Coming Crisis

Session I:  Introduction - Water in Human Culture

I. Introduction.
A. "Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil, but the wars of the 21st century will be over water." Serageldin, V.P. World Bank.
B. Huron California and conflict over water in California (see Wikipedia entry on Huron).

II. Course Schedule:

22 September Introduction – Water and Human Civilization
29 September The Physical Geography of Fresh Water Supplies
6 October Human Uses of Fresh Water
13 October The Social Organization of Water Distribution
20 October Water Supply Challenges in Arid Zones
27 October Water Supply Challenges in Humid Zones
3 November Issues for the (Near) Future: Demand Growth, Climate Change, Contamination and the Control of Water Supplies
10 November Fresh Water Supplies – The Coming Crisis

III. Water "Wonderful Stuff."
A. Some characteristics of water.
1. Abundant in universe and on earth.
2. All 3 phases (liquid, solid, gas) found on or near earth's surface.
3. Ice floats!
4. Good reaction and transport medium.
5. "Universal solvent."
B. Water and life.
1. All known forms require water at some stage.
2. Many (most?) forms incorporate water as part of body.
3. Human life and many life forms essential to human survival require fresh water.
C. Fresh water.
1. 2.5 percent of earth's water (graphic)
1. Much in glacial ice (Antarctica, Greenland, sea ice)
2. Much otherwise inaccessible!
2. Characteristics.
Fresh Water Brackish Water Saline Water Brine
<0.5 ppm 0.5-30 ppm 30-50 ppm >50 ppm

IV. Hydraulics and human civilization.
A. Water Management.
1. The 3 "Ss" of water management.
a. Salt.
b. Silt.
c. (Social) Stability.
2. Water management issues.
a. Flooding and drainage.
b. Seasonal variation.
c. Regional variation.
d. Multi-year variation.
c. Cadaster.
C. Early civilizations and water management (hydraulic civilizations?)
1. Mesopotamia ("Fertile Cescent")
1. Seasonal variation.
2. Regional distribution of water.
2. Indus Valley.
1. Seasonal variation.
2. Regional distribution.
3. Mesoamerican civilizations.
1. Access to water (Mayan in Yucutan to Peten)
2. Control of drainage (Andean)
4. China, the Yangtze and "Tian Ming" the Mandate of Heaven.
D. Water and the fall of civilizations.
1. Salting of water supplies and soil.
2. Silting of water supply conduits.
3. Social upheaval (war, revolution)
4. Environmental change (climatic change).

(sorry for the formatting; I am mixing materials originally composed using Open Office, Microsoft Office, and Google. To no one's surprise, they do not interchange well!)

I forgot to show it in class, but after I had put together the materials for the first session I came across a new book which covers much the same ground and in very much greater detail. I strongly recommend:

Solomon, Steven. 2010, Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization. New York: Harper. 596 pp. ISBN 978-0-06-054830-8.

Do not forget to calculate your water footprint for our session on 6 October. Go to the website'\:




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14 September 2010

Return to Drought

Wildfires following winter drought in Bolivia, September 2010
Source: NASA Earth Observatory

After three weeks in London where drought is not a problem at the end of the wet summer of 2010, late last week we returned to sere lawns and shriveled bushes and plants in Fairfax. 2010 was a wetter than normal year in northwestern and north-central Europe with above average rainfall in many places and flooding in several places in  Poland and nearby countries even as it produced a severe drought in European Russia. The Russian drought has already been discussed here, and grain prices in world markets have escalated as a consequence. The mid-Atlantic Region, though at a much less severe level than European Russia, is in the midst of a drought.

Last Friday I got a weather advisory warning of the possibility of wildfires in the vicinity of Washington, DC. Over the past week a large wildfire has burned near Boulder, CO, destroying some houses and threatening to destroy others. One expects such fires in arid zones and especially in semi-arid zones like the eastern flank of the Front Range in Colorado where rainfall is adequate for the growth of forest but drought is common. Wildfires and drought are much rarer on the East Coast of the US. Subsequent rains and the cooler days of autumn have reduced the fire danger, but it is sobering to realize that drought-induced wildfires are possible anywhere, even in normally humid places.

Because much of its water supply is "run of river" rather than centered on storage reservoirs, the Washington, DC area is particularly susceptible to water shortages when rainfall is below average and the flow of the Potomac is low. A drought watch has been declared for the region following an abnormally hot and dry summer. Rainfall in July seemed to break the drought of early summer, but August was far below long-term average rainfall, and the year to date is well below the expected rainfall. High temperatures made the situation worse, for evaporation and transpiration rates rise with temperature. A drought watch is now in effect in the Washington area, and it could remain in place for the remainder of the summer and through the autumn, especially as October is normally a drier month than August or September.

Wildfires in south central South America, late August 2010
Source: NASA 

A more interesting drought is the ongoing one in the Amazon basin, especially the southwestern edge of that Basin in Brasil and Bolivia. With normal rainfall of 100-400 cm or more per year, the area is too damp for large wildfires much of the time. There is a distinct dry season in the southern hemisphere winter, and some agricultural burning is normal toward the end of that season. In the abnormally dry winter of 2010 many of those agricultural fires grew to substantial size, and much of the south central portion of the Amazon basin has been plagued with a  smoke pall since August. The dry weather has also resulted in reduced river flows in both the Amazonian and Paraná basins.


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