Second Class Session 29 September 2010

World Water Supplies: The Coming Crisis

Mendoza, Argentina ©eop

Session II: The Physical Geography of Water Supplies: Some Illustrative Materials

Thanks to a computer glitch, three videos I had wanted to use with the session were unavailable.  Below are those videos and a couple of notices. I shall post the outline of the session in a day or two.

I. World rainfall by Month, 1998-2009

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

II. World Snow Cover

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

3. Great Artesian Basin of Australia

Source: Government of Australia

The following information is thanks to one of our class members:
"Liquid Assets - The Big Business of Water   'The host explores the coing water crisis as fresh water becomes harder to find"  CNBC Thursday 30 October 9-10 pm
According to other class embers CNBC is available at Channel 68 on Cox cable and 102 on Verizon. The CNBC website does not give much additional information, but it sounds as if the broadcast will be worth watching.

Once again, by next session 6 October, please work out your water footprint. Go to the website at http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=cal/WaterFootprintCalculator

NotesVII

Bar, Soho, London 2010 ©eop

By world standards, the New York Times (NYT) is a rather timid paper, but it is the best daily printed source in the US for stories on major topics, ones that would be front page headlines and multi-column stories in good papers abroad. A couple of days ago the NYT had a very good article on water in Egypt, and today (Tuesday, 28 September 2010) it has a good article on water issues in the Southwestern US. "Water Use in Southwest Heads for a Day of Reckoning" by Felicity Baringer examines the problems of water supply in a region that had grown rapidly during a period of drought. The article makes clear an issue that has been widely discussed elsewhere, the likelihood of conflict over the waters of the Colorado River in the near future unless the drought of the past decade ends soon.

The Nile's Waters: Conflict Between Egypt and Upstream Countries

Nile Valley

Source: Wikipedia Commons

The Nile is the classic example of an exotic river, rising in the highlands of Ethiopia and Central Africa then flowing through the deserts of Sudan and Egypt toward the Mediterranean.  In all of the countries through which the river and its tributaries flow there is a demand for water in excess of easily obtainable supplies from sources other than the river. Egypt, with a population rapidly approaching 80 million, is almost totally dependent on the Nile for water. Agriculture, industry, and domestic users draw water from the river, while the Aswan Dam uses the flow of the river to produce a large fraction of the country's electric energy. With growing populations, demand for higher standards of living, and climate change, demand for the Nile's water is all but certain to generate conflict in the not too distant future.

There is an excellent article on the conflict in today's (Sunday 26 November 2010) New York Times by Thanassis Cambanis, "Egypt and Thirsty Neighbors Are at Odds Over Nile." As I had not planned to discuss in detail the Nile, or much of any other water conflict in Africa, the article is particularly interesting as a supplement to the course, and I strongly recommend reading it.

First Class Session 22 September 2010

Mendoza Argentina ©eop

I am using some copyrighted items in the power pointe presentations, and I cannot legally post them without permissions (the fair use doctrine allows their use in class sessions), so instead I shall post outlines of the sessions along with notes where appropriate.

World Water Supplies: The Coming Crisis

Session I:  Introduction - Water in Human Culture

I. Introduction.

A. "Many of the wars of the 20th century were about oil, but the wars of the 21st century will be over water." Serageldin, V.P. World Bank.

B. Huron California and conflict over water in California (see Wikipedia entry on Huron).

II. Course Schedule:

22 September Introduction – Water and Human Civilization

29 September The Physical Geography of Fresh Water Supplies

6 October Human Uses of Fresh Water

13 October The Social Organization of Water Distribution

20 October Water Supply Challenges in Arid Zones

27 October Water Supply Challenges in Humid Zones

3 November Issues for the (Near) Future: Demand Growth, Climate Change, Contamination and the Control of Water Supplies

10 November Fresh Water Supplies – The Coming Crisis

III. Water "Wonderful Stuff."

A. Some characteristics of water.

1. Abundant in universe and on earth.

2. All 3 phases (liquid, solid, gas) found on or near earth's surface.

3. Ice floats!

4. Good reaction and transport medium.

5. "Universal solvent."

B. Water and life.

1. All known forms require water at some stage.

2. Many (most?) forms incorporate water as part of body.

3. Human life and many life forms essential to human survival require fresh water.

C. Fresh water.

1. 2.5 percent of earth's water (graphic)

1. Much in glacial ice (Antarctica, Greenland, sea ice)

2. Much otherwise inaccessible!

2. Characteristics.

Fresh Water	Brackish Water	Saline Water	Brine
<0.5 ppm	0.5-30 ppm	30-50 ppm	>50 ppm

IV. Hydraulics and human civilization.

A. Water Management.

1. The 3 "Ss" of water management.

a. Salt.

b. Silt.

c. (Social) Stability.

2. Water management issues.

a. Flooding and drainage.

b. Seasonal variation.

c. Regional variation.

d. Multi-year variation.

c. Cadaster.

C. Early civilizations and water management (hydraulic civilizations?)

1. Mesopotamia ("Fertile Cescent")

1. Seasonal variation.

2. Regional distribution of water.

2. Indus Valley.

1. Seasonal variation.

2. Regional distribution.

3. Mesoamerican civilizations.

1. Access to water (Mayan in Yucutan to Peten)

2. Control of drainage (Andean)

4. China, the Yangtze and "Tian Ming" the Mandate of Heaven.

D. Water and the fall of civilizations.

1. Salting of water supplies and soil.

2. Silting of water supply conduits.

3. Social upheaval (war, revolution)

4. Environmental change (climatic change).

(sorry for the formatting; I am mixing materials originally composed using Open Office, Microsoft Office, and Google. To no one's surprise, they do not interchange well!)

I forgot to show it in class, but after I had put together the materials for the first session I came across a new book which covers much the same ground and in very much greater detail. I strongly recommend:

Solomon, Steven. 2010, Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization. New York: Harper. 596 pp. ISBN 978-0-06-054830-8.

Do not forget to calculate your water footprint for our session on 6 October. Go to the website'\:

•http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=cal/WaterFootprintCalculator

Return to Drought

Wildfires following winter drought in Bolivia, September 2010

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

After three weeks in London where drought is not a problem at the end of the wet summer of 2010, late last week we returned to sere lawns and shriveled bushes and plants in Fairfax. 2010 was a wetter than normal year in northwestern and north-central Europe with above average rainfall in many places and flooding in several places in  Poland and nearby countries even as it produced a severe drought in European Russia. The Russian drought has already been discussed here, and grain prices in world markets have escalated as a consequence. The mid-Atlantic Region, though at a much less severe level than European Russia, is in the midst of a drought.

Last Friday I got a weather advisory warning of the possibility of wildfires in the vicinity of Washington, DC. Over the past week a large wildfire has burned near Boulder, CO, destroying some houses and threatening to destroy others. One expects such fires in arid zones and especially in semi-arid zones like the eastern flank of the Front Range in Colorado where rainfall is adequate for the growth of forest but drought is common. Wildfires and drought are much rarer on the East Coast of the US. Subsequent rains and the cooler days of autumn have reduced the fire danger, but it is sobering to realize that drought-induced wildfires are possible anywhere, even in normally humid places.

Because much of its water supply is "run of river" rather than centered on storage reservoirs, the Washington, DC area is particularly susceptible to water shortages when rainfall is below average and the flow of the Potomac is low. A drought watch has been declared for the region following an abnormally hot and dry summer. Rainfall in July seemed to break the drought of early summer, but August was far below long-term average rainfall, and the year to date is well below the expected rainfall. High temperatures made the situation worse, for evaporation and transpiration rates rise with temperature. A drought watch is now in effect in the Washington area, and it could remain in place for the remainder of the summer and through the autumn, especially as October is normally a drier month than August or September.

Wildfires in south central South America, late August 2010

Source: NASA 

A more interesting drought is the ongoing one in the Amazon basin, especially the southwestern edge of that Basin in Brasil and Bolivia. With normal rainfall of 100-400 cm or more per year, the area is too damp for large wildfires much of the time. There is a distinct dry season in the southern hemisphere winter, and some agricultural burning is normal toward the end of that season. In the abnormally dry winter of 2010 many of those agricultural fires grew to substantial size, and much of the south central portion of the Amazon basin has been plagued with a  smoke pall since August. The dry weather has also resulted in reduced river flows in both the Amazonian and Paraná basins.

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